China is getting prepared and will not suffer an economic crash
Lucas Dib*
Political scientist, economist and public administrator by training at FGV, Brazil. He's a high foreign talent and a Visiting Scholar at Fudan Development Institute, in Shanghai.
Article prepared to China Daily. May, 2018.
Abstract
Since at least 1998 and amid all those who aspire to understand China, we can underline two critical interpretative “groups” on the soundness of the Chinese economy and its financial institutions: the first one has predicted an always imminent economic crash (that never comes); the second one, moderate, foresees a forthcoming stagnation process.
It’s crystal clear that both have failed in their forecasts. But what else do they have in common?
They’ve blamed the Chinese monetary, credit and investment policy to causing a supposed economic imbalance? Check.
They are critical on the role of State-Owned Enterprises as strategical drivers to foster and underpin development? Check.
Both have criticized the Chinese political system approach albeit it has taken out from poverty much more citizens than have never happened in the History, while the so-called liberal-democracy is under crisis legitimacy worldwide and haven't delivered improvements in living standards at the same pace and speed as China? Check.
Last but not least, most critics neither have foreshadowed a financial crisis due the pile of debt that has been pouring by Central Banks from developed countries, they did not anticipate the 2008 financial crash nor have given daily headline for the bond-buying scheme for sovereign bonds and corporate-debt by the European Central Bank or by Federal Reserve? Double check.